Issue date: 5/3/07 Section: Play

Like many involved traders, he belongs to an HSX league, where he pits his profile against those of his closest college buddies. To help each other out, they share stock tips, investing approaches and get-rich-quick schemes. One league member, who works in Los Angeles, even occasionally leaks studio secrets. "Other people have fantasy baseball or football, and I've just never been able to get into that," says Gatlin, who graduated from the University of Missouri in 2004. "When I'm with my friends, it's all about the Hollywood Stock Exchange."

But it's still a competition. Though Gatlin has never wagered cash - "I'm too broke," he laments - if one of his stocks tanks and he loses bragging rights, it could ruin his week. "I know it's a game," he says. "But for me, this might as well be real money."

DAMAGE CONTROL

As a professor, Bleich teaches his screenwriting students to focus on creativity over competition. But HSX's emphasis on rankings, he says, can turn fans away from - and even against - quality low-grossing films. "If you're getting up every morning and rooting against a certain movie," he says, "it's not a great frame of mind."

Eckersberg agrees. Though she loves independent movies, they're largely ignored on blockbuster-driven HSX. As a result, she's forced to bet against their MovieStocks to make a profit - a process known as "shorting." "You're essentially making money when (indie) stock prices fall," she explains. "That gets pretty depressing when you like the films."

Yet after eight years of trading, Eckersberg remains active on HSX. She spends hours searching for stock tips, days pondering an investment and years forming bonds with fellow users - both on and off the site. "It's why I keep playing," says Eckersberg, who regularly socializes on HSX message boards. "If you've ever visited another (box office predicting) site, people are just stuck in their own thing. It's not like that at HSX. There's a wide variety of people, a wide variety of ages. There are people who are into sports and people who like to read." She pauses before adding, "It's not just all about movies all the time." 

FINAL DESTINATION

Recently, the site has started to tinker with its 10-year-old formula. Once limited to MovieStocks, users can now purchase "Hollywood Derivatives" to predict the success of their favorite World Cup soccer team, American Idol contestant or Academy Awards nominee. (In 2005, HSX users correctly guessed all eight Oscar winners.) The point, says Costakis, is to create a "testing ground" for future additions to the site, which could include full-time sports options and TV stocks.

But like many longtime users, 37-year-old Epiphany Norton is wary of change. She's spent half a decade perfecting her technique. Now that her $H1 billion goal lies within reach, Norton is sticking to what she knows: movies. "I'm sure I could make money predicting American Idol," she says. "But, for now, I want to be pure to the game."4

Medill junior Dan Macsai is a PLAY writer. He can be reached at d-macsai@northwestern.edu.

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